Bitcoin climbed back near $79,000 on Friday after August inflation data matched Wall Street's forecasts, reversing an early dip ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 15-16 meeting. Estimates of the odds of a rate hike vary sharply across platforms and sources.
Bitcoin fell to a session low of $76,040 within minutes of Friday's inflation report, then reversed hard and climbed as high as $79,837 before settling near $79,007, a 3.24% gain on the day. The swing followed Bureau of Labor Statistics data showing the Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% year over year and 0.4% month over month in August, both matching consensus.
Core inflation runs hot even as the annual rate cools
Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, cooled to 2.4% annually — its lowest level since 2021, Decrypt reported. Its 0.3% monthly reading, though, ran hotter than the 0.2% economists had forecast, according to crypto.news. Energy costs drove much of the headline increase: gasoline prices rose 3.9% and contributed more than a third of August's monthly increase, crypto.news reported, amid inflation pressure tied to Middle East fighting that has disrupted oil flows.
Fed rate-hike odds diverge across platforms
CME FedWatch data pointed to roughly 69% odds of a 25-basis-point hike at next week's meeting, while Polymarket priced the same outcome at 62% and Myriad, run by Decrypt's parent company, at 61%, Decrypt reported. crypto.news, however, cited Polymarket odds climbing to 81% after the CPI report, up from near 59% beforehand. Bitcoin Magazine put CME FedWatch's probability of higher interest rates next week at 85%.
Ether and Solana rally alongside Bitcoin
Ethereum climbed 7.48% to reclaim $2,611, while Solana rose 4.53% back above $100, Decrypt reported. Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average has crossed above its 200-day average, a golden cross that traders read as confirmation the medium-term trend has turned bullish. The Relative Strength Index sits at 59.7, in bullish territory but below the overbought threshold of 70, according to Decrypt.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are still showing a net outflow of roughly $330.5 million on the day, Decrypt reported, a reminder that the rally hasn't yet drawn fresh institutional money off the sidelines.
Sources: Decrypt, crypto.news, Bitcoin Magazine
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