A hypothetical $10,000 investment shows Bitcoin gaining ground on gold and silver during the recent US-Iran conflict, while rising Treasury yields ahead of the FOMC meeting add fresh macro pressure. On-chain gold tokens and a sliding XAU/BTC ratio point to the same divergence showing up across markets.
Bitcoin holds the edge in a $10K test
A hypothetical $10,000 investment in Bitcoin would have grown to $11,762 during the US-Iran conflict, while the same stake in gold reached only $8,200 and in silver just $7,310. That gap matters because metals usually act as a safe haven when macro uncertainty spikes.
Instead, Bitcoin outperformed both metals in that scenario, pointing to a different risk-reward profile as volatility picks up this month.
Treasury yields climb into the FOMC meeting
The build-up to the FOMC meeting is already visible in the bond market. The 10-year Treasury yield jumped from 4.7% to nearly 4.9%, heading back toward multi-year highs and adding pressure on risk assets.
Yet another divergence is emerging: one analyst noted that in each of the last four times the 10-year yield climbed, Bitcoin responded with a parabolic move. Even so, Bitcoin corrected only about 3% this week despite the yield spike, which suggests it can withstand the growing macro pressure.
Tokenized gold and a sliding ratio
Tokenized markets appear to be part of the divergence. According to Token Terminal, the RWA market has reached $46.4 billion on-chain, with tokenized gold making up $5.1 billion, or 11% of the total. XAUT leads that category with a $2.7 billion market, followed by PAXG at $1.9 billion.
The technicals show the same split. The XAU/BTC ratio is down more than 17% in the third quarter, marking its strongest downtrend since the Q2 2025 cycle — despite the spike in macro uncertainty. That leaves Bitcoin's ability to absorb further rate hike pressure as the open question for the rest of the quarter.
Source: AMBCrypto
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
