Bitcoin has climbed 35% since its August low even as leverage drains from the futures market, according to Glassnode, with spot buying and ETF inflows now doing the work that derivatives speculation once did. Options traders are betting on a break above $90,000, but CryptoQuant warns that surging profit-taking could still trigger a correction.
Bitcoin has climbed 35% since its August low, and the futures market has moved the opposite way. Glassnode data shows BTC-denominated open interest has dropped nearly 20% to its lowest level since March, an unusual split between rising price and falling leverage.
Leverage drains after August's liquidation event
The decline gathered pace after a record short liquidation event on August 19, when shorts accounted for 85% of all liquidations that day. Open interest then contracted 11% in coin-denominated terms in the immediate aftermath, clearing out much of the leveraged positioning that had built up. Bitcoin rose roughly 26% from its mid-August lows during that initial recovery leg, before extending the advance to its current 35% gain and settling into the $83,000-to-$84,000 range in late September.
Spot buyers and ETFs take over
Glassnode frames the divergence as a maturing market structure, where price momentum increasingly comes from spot demand and ETF inflows rather than fresh derivatives bets. US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $2.23 billion during their strongest seven-day stretch in August. Separately, spot Bitcoin ETFs strung together eight consecutive days of net inflows, pulling in roughly $2.39 billion in a single week — the largest weekly haul since October 2025. Cumulative net inflows since the funds launched in January 2024 have reached approximately $57.5 billion, with total assets closing in on $108 billion.
Traders bet on a breakout above $90,000
Options traders are positioning for further gains even though Bitcoin itself remains about 34% below its October 2025 peak near $126,000. Open interest in IBIT options has concentrated heavily at the $90,000 and $95,000 call strikes, a clustering that can pin price near those levels as market makers hedge their exposure.
CryptoQuant flags a correction risk
Not every signal points higher. CryptoQuant has recorded roughly 110,000 BTC in net realized profits since mid-August alone, with daily realized profits peaking in a 23,000-to-25,700 BTC range that month. Unrealized profit margins ballooned to 33% by September, while the Coinbase Premium Index, a gauge of US spot demand, has stayed negative throughout 2026. CryptoQuant characterizes the current phase as a "bullish cooldown" rather than a shift into a full-blown bear market.
Sources: Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing, Crypto Briefing
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