Bitcoin erased Friday's post-payrolls losses over the weekend and climbed back near its monthly highs, trading around $86,160 on October 5. The rebound now faces two tests: an analyst-flagged pattern of Sunday gains reversing on Monday, and Wednesday's FOMC minutes, which could reset the odds of an October rate hike.
Bitcoin couldn't hold Friday's gains after a soft September non-farm payrolls report, closing the day in the red even though the data missed expectations. There was no fresh bearish catalyst — the broader run of strong US data and the ongoing US-Iran stalemate simply outweighed one weak jobs print.
Bitcoin claws back to pre-NFP levels
Over the weekend, Bitcoin recovered Friday's losses and returned to pre-NFP levels. With this week's economic calendar light, traders are watching US-Iran negotiations as the next directional trigger: a breakthrough could pull oil prices down and boost Bitcoin on lower rate hike expectations, while another escalation would likely push crude higher and weigh on crypto.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin trades near its monthly highs. A pullback into the rising trendline could draw buyers positioning for a move toward $98,000, while a break below the trendline and the $82,500 support would open the door to a correction toward $76,000.
Analyst flags a Sunday-to-Monday reversal pattern
Separately, analyst Ali Martinez warned on October 4 that Bitcoin could see a Monday pullback after the coin gained more than 1% on Sunday. He pointed to five Sunday-Monday pairs between August 29 and September 28 that all reversed direction — including a 0.66% Sunday gain on September 6 followed by a 1.54% Monday loss, and a 0.10% Sunday dip on September 20 followed by a 6.71% Monday gain.
Martinez also flagged a four-hour TD Sequential sell signal on Bitcoin, noting that each of the previous four such signals was followed by a correction, with drops as large as 4.37%. Similar signals on Ethereum and Solana have preceded declines of up to 5.76% in past instances.
Fed minutes and exchange flows add to the picture
Bitcoin's bounce also coincides with falling odds of a near-term rate hike. After the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points on September 16, hike odds for October rose above 80%, but cooling PCE inflation data pulled those odds down to 17%. The FOMC minutes from that September meeting are due on October 7 and could shift the outlook again.
On-chain data adds a supportive signal: 6,036 BTC left exchanges between September 28 and October 4, including 1,071 BTC on October 4 alone, while Bitcoin ETFs have logged three straight weeks of inflows.
Sources: investingLive, CryptoPotato, CoinGape
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