Bitcoin's four-hour chart is forming a rounded-top pattern, and a decisive breakdown below $76,000 support could push the price toward a $70,900-$71,000 target. Weak spot demand contrasts with positive futures activity, a divergence that last showed up before a price decline in January and February 2026.
Bitcoin risks a drop toward $71,000 if a rounded-top pattern on its four-hour chart confirms with a decisive breakdown below the $76,000 support level. The pattern has developed after BTC rallied from roughly $63,000 in mid-August to the $80,000-$81,500 region, before bullish momentum weakened and the price began curving lower into a dome-like structure.
Rounded top puts $71,000 in focus
Bitcoin was trading near $76,870 on Monday, September 15, holding above the $76,000-$76,300 zone that forms the pattern's neckline. A decisive four-hour candle close below that zone would confirm the rounded top and raise the odds of a deeper correction.
The distance between the pattern's peak and its neckline runs $5,000 to $5,300. Subtracting that range from a breakdown near $76,000 produces the $70,900-$71,000 downside target. The four-hour Relative Strength Index stood near 54.5, reflecting broadly neutral momentum, while BTC traded around its 20, 50, and 100-period moving averages, underscoring the standoff between buyers and sellers. A recovery above $79,500-$80,000 would weaken the bearish scenario, and a breakout above the recent highs near $81,500 would largely invalidate it.
Spot demand lags behind futures activity
Bitcoin's underlying demand profile offers limited support for the bullish case. CryptoQuant's 30-day demand-growth data shows perpetual futures demand stayed positive through September, while spot demand stayed negative, leaving Bitcoin's overall demand below zero despite continued derivatives activity.
The divergence suggests leveraged futures positions are driving much of the recent buying rather than direct spot accumulation. A rally built mainly on derivatives can prove more fragile than one backed by spot buying, since futures demand can unwind quickly when traders close positions or face liquidations during a decline.
A similar divergence appeared in January and February 2026, when futures demand briefly recovered before overall demand and Bitcoin's price weakened. The current structure does not guarantee the same outcome, but without a recovery in spot demand, a confirmed breakdown below $76,000 would make the $71,000 target increasingly relevant.
Source: CoinJournal
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