Bitcoin fell below $84,000 after failing to hold last Friday's push to $87,197, triggering $510.6 million in futures liquidations. Analysts offer competing views on October: one predicts $100,000 within weeks, while others say any recovery depends on spot buying returning rather than a seasonal pattern.
Bitcoin slipped below $84,000 after reaching $87,197 last Friday, and analysts have offered competing views on whether October can deliver a run toward $100,000. SideShift founder Andreas Brekken predicts a strong October, framing it as a shift in investor attention away from the SpaceX IPO and back toward crypto. According to crypto.news: "I'm predicting a strong Uptober and $100K in weeks."
Short sellers risk getting trapped at $84,000
Bitfinex's team identified $84,000 as the level bulls need to defend, since 867,000 BTC sit in a cost-basis cluster there, the point at which 75% of Bitcoin's supply turns profitable. If BTC holds $84,000, late short positions become trapped below this key level, the analysts said, and a rise in spot purchases could push the price back toward its $87,722 yearly opening level.
Liquidations hit $510 million as leverage unwinds
Bitcoin broke below the support overnight ahead of the Oct. 7 Federal Reserve minutes, and Bitfinex put total crypto futures liquidations over 24 hours at $510.6 million, including $417.6 million in long positions. Roughly $300 million of those long liquidations hit within a single hour as the price broke down. Even so, open interest across major perpetual venues was 0.5% higher on the morning of Oct. 7 than on Oct. 5, which the team read as fresh trades replacing the forced-out longs, with annualized funding rates staying positive between 5% and 6.5% through the week.
ETF flows and October's record draw competing views
DWF Labs' Martin Lee said he was not too concerned about Monday's roughly $90 million Bitcoin ETF outflow, pointing to a $2.4 billion inflow week from Sep. 21–25 and a further $241 million the following week. Nansen's Jake Kennis noted Bitcoin has produced a median October gain of roughly 14% since 2013, with gains in 10 of the past 13 years, but said liquidity, positioning, and macro conditions matter more than the calendar. Bitfinex's analysts are watching September CPI data due Oct. 14 as the next event that could break Bitcoin out of its current range.
Source: crypto.news
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