Bitcoin fell to $83,344, down 1.23% since midnight UTC, as a bond selloff pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007. Rising oil prices and firmer Fed rate-hike bets added to the pressure, while derivatives data pointed to existing positions closing out rather than fresh bearish bets.
Bitcoin gave back an early Thursday recovery to trade at $83,344, down 1.23% since midnight UTC, as a bond selloff pushed the US 10-year Treasury yield to its highest level since 2007 for a second straight day.
The move dragged the rest of the market with it: ether fell 1.55%, XRP lost 2.87% and solana slipped 1.61% to $113.14, while smaller tokens NEAR and HYPE dropped 3.32% and 3.94% respectively.
Treasury yields test Bitcoin's footing
The 10-year Treasury yield closed Wednesday at 5.11%, up from 4.96% Tuesday, and touched 5.13% intraday, its highest level since 2007. CME attributed the bond selloff partly to stronger US business data and rising oil prices.
CME Group's Fedwatch tool showed a 75.3% probability of a hike to 4.00-4.25% at the Fed's Oct. 28 meeting. Bas Kooijman, CEO of DHF Capital, said markets assigned around a 70% probability for an October hike, up from roughly 55% the previous day, as stronger business activity and elevated energy prices raised tightening expectations.
According to FOREX.com's James Stanley: "BTC has held up well even with surging rates and a strong USD". Stanley identified $82,833 as the next level to watch if the pullback deepens.
Oil prices and Iran comments add pressure
At the UN General Assembly, Trump repeated that the US would reach a deal with Iran after the November elections, dampening earlier hopes of a Middle East de-escalation that had supported crypto. Oil prices then resumed climbing, and Wednesday's US Flash PMIs showed stronger growth than expected, triggering a hawkish repricing that sent Treasury yields to new highs.
Derivatives point to position unwinding
Shorts made up more than 52% of the 24-hour taker volume, which rose 10% to $250 billion even as open interest fell nearly 6% to $149 billion, pointing to existing positions closing out rather than fresh short conviction building. Bitcoin futures open interest also dropped 6% against a 3% price decline over 24 hours, consistent with genuine long unwinding rather than new shorts piling in.
Despite the weak positioning elsewhere, the whale long/short account ratio on Binance held above 1 at 1.30, a divergence from the broader selling.
Over $17 billion in BTC and ETH options are due to expire on Deribit Friday, with most contracts currently in the money, leaving traders to decide whether to roll positions into later expiries or let them settle.
Sources: CoinDesk: Bitcoin, Ethereum, Crypto News and Price Data, Cointelegraph.com News, Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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