Bitcoin slipped to about $83,600 on Friday as a $15.6 billion options expiry on Deribit cleared and traders priced in higher odds of an October Fed rate hike. The 4-hour MACD has turned bearish even as the daily chart's golden cross keeps the broader trend intact.
Bitcoin slipped to about $83,600 on Friday, a pullback of roughly 1% from the prior close, as $15.6 billion in Bitcoin options expired on Deribit, a routine event where dealers often unwind hedges once that flow clears.
The dip follows an intraday high near $87,000 — territory Bitcoin hadn't touched in months — after it broke out of the $75,000-to-$81,000 range that had capped it for weeks. Even so, the daily setup still reads bullish, with the 50-day moving average sitting above the 200-day in a golden cross.
Options expiry clears the hedging flow
The expiry would help explain why open interest and 24-hour trading volume both fell sharply, down 14.39% and 13.68% respectively. Liquidations came in fairly balanced, with $161.96 million in long positions against $156.1 million in shorts over the past 24 hours — a pattern that looks more like leverage getting reset than a one-sided flush.
Rate-hike odds climb after Barr's comments
The Federal Reserve raised rates 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4% on September 16, its first hike since 2023, but kept buying short-term Treasury bills to keep bank reserves flush. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's post-meeting dot plot projected a median rate of just 4.1% through the end of 2027, signaling only one more hike was likely.
On September 23, Fed Governor Michael Barr said, per Decrypt: "further policy adjustments are likely needed" — a remark that landed alongside a report putting core PCE inflation at 3.4%, near a four-year high. Odds of an October hike have since climbed to roughly 75% on the CME's FedWatch tool and 68.5% on Myriad Markets, a sharp reversal from where they sat right after the September meeting.
MACD turns bearish on the 4-hour chart
Bitcoin's 4-hour MACD line has dropped to 251.25, below its signal line at 551.84, with a histogram reading of minus 300.59 — a sign that short-term momentum has weakened after the earlier advance. The daily RSI, though, still holds at 62.03, above the neutral 50 level.
The pullback also coincides with a rise in Treasury yields: LVRG Research's Dan Khus told crypto.news that the 10-year yield eased back toward 5.19% after a 30-basis-point surge.
ETF flows cool as sentiment eases
Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in another $299.09 million on Friday, a smaller haul than earlier in the week. Total crypto market capitalization sits at $2.87 trillion, down from the $3 trillion-plus level reached earlier this week, while the Fear and Greed Index has eased to 72 from a peak of 79, still solidly in "greed" territory.
The next test arrives fast: September's Personal Consumption Expenditures data lands September 30, followed by the September jobs report on October 2, both capable of resetting rate expectations heading into the fourth quarter.
Sources: Decrypt, crypto.news
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