Bitcoin slipped toward $78,000 on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected US jobs data revived bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike and rising oil prices added to inflation worries. At the same time, a golden cross forming on Bitcoin's chart coincides with $3.8 billion in three-week ETF inflows, a pattern that has preceded sizable rallies in the past.
Bitcoin slipped toward $78,000 on Tuesday, extending a pullback from last week's three-month high. The token had briefly climbed above $82,000 before retreating after Friday's US employment report. It last traded 1.6% lower at $78,406.5 by 02:28 ET.
Fed rate-hike bets hold near 60%
US employers added 162,000 jobs in August, almost triple economists' expectations, while unemployment held at 4.1%. The report pushed the market-implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike at the Sept. 16 meeting to about 60%, according to CME FedWatch, though other measures put it closer to the low-50% range.
Higher rates typically pressure Bitcoin by boosting the appeal of yield-bearing assets. The 10-year Treasury yield has also climbed to around 4.8%, and investors are now awaiting producer-price and consumer-price data due Thursday and Friday, the last major inflation readings before the Fed meeting.
Oil adds to the inflation squeeze
Brent crude rose to about $97.50 a barrel on Tuesday, its highest in about six weeks, as escalating US-Iran tensions raised concerns over supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Still, Bitcoin remains well above its recent lows after gaining roughly 25% in August. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $1 billion in inflows last week, extending a three-week streak of positive flows.
Golden cross set to confirm as ETF inflows climb
Bitcoin's 50-day exponential moving average is crossing above its 200-day EMA, forming a golden cross for the first time since November 2025, with the signal projected to confirm around September 11. Separately, US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $3.8 billion in net inflows over their strongest three-week stretch of the year, including nearly $987 million in a single week.
Since 2012, Bitcoin has produced 12 golden crosses, with an average three-month gain of 24.9%. The last three preceded rallies of 50%, 45% and 60%. Only three of those signals, however, remained valid for a full year, and the pattern is backward-looking rather than predictive.
Sources: Investing.com, Crypto Briefing
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