Bitcoin's Bull Score climbed to 90 out of 100 after the coin broke above its 365-day moving average, but spot and futures demand have both weakened. Spot demand contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days, and growth in futures demand fell about 90% in 15 days.
CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index jumped to 90 after Bitcoin broke above its 365-day moving average last week, a level the onchain analytics firm treats as confirmation of a bull market. Yet the coin has struggled to build on that strength. Bitcoin traded just above $83,300 on Wednesday morning in Asia, up about 0.4% over 24 hours but down from its eight-month high near $87,400.
Spot demand has contracted even as the score rises
CryptoQuant estimates that Bitcoin spot demand has contracted by roughly 170,000 BTC over the past 30 days. The firm's apparent demand measure compares newly mined Bitcoin against changes in the supply of coins that have sat unmoved for at least a year, and that reading has been falling all month.
The slowdown follows a stretch when buyers pushed Bitcoin through several price levels. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $2.39 billion in weekly inflows between Sept. 21 and Sept. 25, with BlackRock's IBIT alone accounting for $1.16 billion. More than 13,800 BTC left Binance in a single day last week, the exchange's largest daily net outflow since 2023, as its reserves fell from about 705,000 BTC to 685,000 BTC over four days.
Futures demand growth has fallen faster still
Weakness is sharper in the derivatives market. CryptoQuant says growth in speculative futures demand fell from approximately 164,000 BTC on Sept. 14 to just 16,000 BTC by Sept. 29, a roughly 90% decline in 15 days.
Binance Bitcoin open interest dropped from about $5.4 billion to $4.9 billion between Sept. 21 and Sept. 23. Funding rates moved close to neutral as leveraged traders cut exposure. A reduction in leverage can remove some of the liquidation risk built up during a rally.
Recent buyers are sitting on an average unrealized profit of 33%, the highest level since December 2024, according to CryptoQuant. Investors realized profits on 25,700 BTC on Sept. 22, the largest single day of profit-taking recorded this year. According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant: "Without fresh demand, rallies struggle to extend".
A strong quarter meets rising yields
Bitcoin's pullback comes after a strong quarter. The coin was set to add 42% in the three months to September 30, its best quarterly performance since the fourth quarter of 2024. Top corporate holder Strategy Inc resumed its purchases of the crypto during the quarter, aiding the move.
The $85,000 region has emerged as an immediate hurdle, with sell orders concentrated between $85,000 and $85,800 after the pullback. Bitget Wallet research lead Lacie Zhang placed the key pullback area between $81,500 and $83,000.
The 10-year Treasury yield reached around 5.23% on Wednesday, its highest level since 2007. Markets are weighing persistent inflation and the prospect of further Fed tightening.
Sources: crypto.news, Investing.com
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
