Bitcoin climbed roughly 10% in July yet keeps stalling near $68,000. Bitfinex analysts trace the ceiling to 3.55 million BTC bought around that level, a supply wall now absorbing strong spot bitcoin ETF demand. Whether the coin can clear the zone without heavy leverage is the market's next test.
Bitcoin's July rally keeps running into the same ceiling. The coin gained roughly 10% in July, rebounding from lows near $58,000 to around $63,955 by July 24, but Bitfinex analysts say 3.55 million BTC acquired near $68,000 are blocking a sustained move above that level.
Bitfinex ties the advance to crypto-native demand rather than broader technology-sector momentum. Spot bitcoin ETF demand has become the dominant force behind the month's gains, the analysts said, outweighing the influence of AI-related technology stocks. They added that bitcoin's moves are better explained by crypto-specific factors than by any correlation with tech names such as Nvidia and Alphabet.
Why 3.55 million BTC cap the price
Despite steady ETF buying, bitcoin has repeatedly struggled to hold above $68,000. Bitfinex attributes the resistance to ask-side liquidity from investors whose entry prices cluster around that threshold: "What caps the move is ask-side liquidity in the order books".
Two levels converge there: the short-term holder realized price at $68,073 and the April monthly open at $68,266, with 3.55 million coins aged six to 12 months carrying cost bases in the same band. Those holders are approaching breakeven, and some may sell as prices return to their entry points. Buyers must therefore absorb that supply before $68,000 can turn into support.
What a breakout would take
Bitfinex also flagged where the recent selling came from. Entities holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC sold about $5.1 billion worth of bitcoin during May and June, far more than spot ETFs absorbed during their strongest seven-day buying streak.
The next test, Bitfinex said, is whether bitcoin can establish itself above $68,000 without relying on excessive leverage. A move built on steady spot demand rather than speculative futures trading would signal that buyers are clearing the breakeven supply. If the coin breaks above $68,000 and holds, investors waiting to exit at cost may stop selling, removing a major barrier to further gains.
Source: Bitcoin News
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