Bitcoin traded near $65,000 on Aug. 8 but failed to reclaim the $67,523 short-term holder cost basis, leaving its rebound exposed to renewed selling. CryptoQuant data shows the gap between spot price and that breakeven line has narrowed to its tightest point since July 21. Liquidation clusters just above and below the current price could decide which way Bitcoin breaks next.
Bitcoin held near $65,015 on Aug. 8, trading in a tight range between $64,784 and $65,075 after rebounding from an Aug. 2 low near $62,200. Sellers, however, continue to defend the area just above $65,000.
Sellers defend the $65,000 level
Analyst Ted Pillows said in an Aug. 8 X post that Bitcoin failed to establish a firm hold above that threshold, with sellers still active in the zone. The daily chart backs that read: Bitcoin trades above its 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages at $64,461 and $63,363, which form a support band near $63,300 to $64,500. Yet BTC remains below its 100-day SMA at $68,052 and its 200-day SMA at $70,295, so the broader downtrend that began after Bitcoin's May peak near $82,000 has not reversed.
Short-term holders face a $67,523 breakeven wall
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. tracks the short-term holder realized price — the average acquisition cost of coins held under 155 days — and placed it at $67,523 as of Aug. 8, against a BTC spot price of $64,952, a gap of $2,571, or 3.8%. That is the narrowest gap since July 21, pulling more holders closer to breakeven.
Adler noted that Bitcoin has closed below the short-term holder realized price on 279 of the previous 284 days. According to Adler: "STHs will start dumping into the market to close their positions at breakeven." He added that the forecast is not guaranteed, though the cost basis still marks a visible resistance area BTC would need to clear to improve its medium-term structure.
Liquidation clusters bracket both sides of the market
The 4-hour chart looks more constructive: Bitcoin trades above the Bollinger midline at $64,647 and near the upper band at $65,257, with the RSI at 61.83, above its moving average of 59.25. A close above the upper band could open a path toward $65,600 and then $66,000.
CoinGlass' one-week liquidation heatmap shows a major cluster near $65,500 to $65,700 that could fuel a short squeeze if cleared, while larger downside clusters sit near $63,700 to $63,900 and close to $63,000. Because spot Bitcoin ETFs and CME futures are closed over the weekend, any sharp move before Monday could open a gap with those regulated products once they reopen. The short-term bias stays mildly bullish above $64,000, but the $67,523 cost basis and the moving averages above $68,000 remain the barriers standing between Bitcoin and a broader recovery.
Source: crypto.news
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