TL;DR: Bitcoin steadied just below $60,000 to start the week, rising 0.6% to $59,800, but derivatives data and chart formations still skew bearish. Analysts warn of further downside, with one technician flagging a possible drop to $40,000, even as RSI signals hint at a recovery.
Bitcoin is clinging to the edge of $60,000, rising 0.6% since midnight UTC to $59,800 on Monday despite a market structure that the same source calls bearish. The largest cryptocurrency has now lost more than 50% of its value since October's record high. Ether sits below $1,600, leaving the broader market in what analysts describe as a perilous position heading into the month's close.
Derivatives point to more downside
The bounce did not erase the caution running through the futures market. Over $200 million in futures positions were liquidated across exchanges in the past 24 hours, with longs making up the bulk of the total. Bitcoin open interest fell back to ranges seen earlier in the month, erasing a brief pop to 775K BTC on Friday, a sign that traders are less willing to take on risk.
Options positioning leans defensive. On Deribit, the $60,000 put now holds notional open interest of nearly $1 billion, almost matching the $1.11 billion sitting in the $80,000 call. Should the price slide below $60,000, the next large options cluster sits at $50,000.
Strategists warn of a drop to $40,000
The technical picture worries some analysts. According to CNBC, John Roque of 22V Research said a break of $60,000 would imply a drop to $40,000. Miller Tabak strategist Matt Maley pointed to recent outflows from bitcoin ETFs as a sign that investor enthusiasm has weakened. Those funds recently logged their biggest monthly outflows since 2024, CNBC reported, as institutional investors moved to cut risk.
The June slump has been steep by recent standards. CoinGlass data puts the month's loss at nearly 19%, the worst since the 2022 bear market.
A bullish signal in the noise
Not every indicator points down. Bitcoin's relative strength index is printing bullish divergences across multiple time frames that were absent from earlier dips this year, a pattern that has accompanied major trend changes before, including the end of the 2022 bear market. Traders still want confirmation. As analyst Michaël van de Poppe put it, according to Cointelegraph: "the bullish divergence is there and shouldn't be ignored."
Sources: CoinDesk, CNBC, Cointelegraph
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