Bitcoin traded at $86,757 on Friday, up 3% over 24 hours, after a weaker-than-expected September jobs report pushed traders to price a higher chance the Federal Reserve holds rates on October 28. Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $6.34 billion in the third quarter, while a third-quarter Treasury-yield spike squeezed leveraged crypto positions along the way.
Bitcoin jumped to $86,757 on Friday, up 3% over 24 hours and 2% on the week, after nonfarm payrolls rose just 29,000 in September against forecasts of about 90,000. The move leaves the coin about 31% below the record it set a year ago, capping a September that broke the month's usual losing reputation.
A soft jobs report moves the odds
The Bureau of Labor Statistics also raised unemployment to 4.2% against expectations of 4.1%, while monthly earnings grew 0.1%, below the 0.3% forecast. July and August payrolls were revised down by a combined 60,000.
Bitcoin reacted immediately: the asset climbed to over $86,000 before shooting up roughly $1,000, touching $87,250 before settling near $87,000.
Traders pushed the odds of a Fed pause to 85% on prediction markets, a sharp reversal from last month, when a hotter-than-expected report lifted hike odds and preceded an actual increase. Futures tracked by CME's FedWatch tool, separately, put a hold at the October meeting at 74%, up from 35.8% a week earlier.
New York Fed President John Williams said there was no need to rush after September's hike. Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said policymakers needed more time to assess the data. Nexo analyst Iliya Kalchev said: "Cooling inflation without labor weakness is generally supportive of risk assets, Bitcoin included."
ETF money keeps arriving
Spot Bitcoin ETFs took in $2.65 billion in September and $6.34 billion across the third quarter, according to SoSoValue, lifting net assets to $109.3 billion. That intake followed losses of $4.97 billion in the second quarter and $490 million in the first, so 2026 net inflows remain under $1 billion. Citi raised its 12-month Bitcoin forecast to $113,000 from $82,000, citing stronger crypto activity and the return of ETF inflows.
Yields squeezed leverage along the way
The rally came against a backdrop of rising rates. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5.34% on October 1, its highest since 2002, after climbing almost 90 basis points over the quarter. Higher yields raise the cost of leverage built around Bitcoin, and a stronger PMI reading on September 23 pushed yields up and triggered $510 million in liquidations over 24 hours.
Bitcoin still gained about 43% over the third quarter despite the pressure. Stephen Wundke of Algoz said traders now see more room to rise than to fall heading into October, a month that has averaged an 18% gain over the past decade.
Sources: Decrypt, CryptoPotato, CryptoSlate
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