Bitcoin traded above $86,000 on Friday, up 3.4% in 24 hours, as traders added leveraged positions ahead of the day's U.S. jobs report. Bitcoin's dominance pushed toward 60%, open interest climbed to $22.4 billion, and $344 million in liquidations over 24 hours underscored the risk of a sharp swing.
Bitcoin traded above $86,000 at 9:10 UTC Friday, up 3.4% over 24 hours, as traders piled into the market ahead of the day's nonfarm payrolls report. Ether, XRP, solana and BNB also gained, though none matched bitcoin's pace.
Bitcoin's dominance nears 60%
Bitcoin's dominance, its share of the total crypto market, is closing in on 60%, while the share held by USDT slipped to around 6.3%, according to CoinDesk, pointing to a market growing more comfortable with risk. AMBCrypto separately put bitcoin dominance at 58.79% and reported that buyers took out the $85,000 sell wall a day earlier after nearly a week of failed attempts.
Jobs report and rate-hike odds in focus
Traders are also weighing the odds of a rate hike. The nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show the U.S. economy added 90,000 jobs in September, down from 162,000 in August, with unemployment forecast to hold at 4.1%.
Markets now see a 30% chance of a rate hike in October, down from 70%, after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson. AMBCrypto cited FedWatch data showing the odds easing from 70% to 26% as expectations of a pause increased.
Oliver Carding, head of marketing at Tesseract Group, said he is watching the data for its effect on longer-dated yields. According to CoinDesk: "I use a 10-year real yield of about 3% as a monitoring level", adding that a sustained move above it would make a retest of $80,000 to $82,000 more likely than a run at $90,000.
Leverage builds, but ETF flows turn red
Leverage in the derivatives market kept building ahead of the jobs data, with funding rates and open interest both climbing. BTC open interest rose to $22.4 billion, from $20.9 billion the previous day. Funding rates ran 9% to 10% annualized on Hyperliquid and OKX, and Coinglass data showed $344 million in liquidations over 24 hours, up from $100 million the previous day, split 28%-72% between longs and shorts.
Yet U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs closed September in the red, ending a nine-day inflow streak, with $148.7 million in net outflows on Wednesday led by Fidelity's FBTC. AMBCrypto reported $136.72 million in BTC spot sell orders stacked between $89,000 and $109,000 on Coinbase, an overhang that could cap the breakout if spot demand stays weak.
A contested breakout on the charts
The price rose $3,400 to $86,800 on Thursday before being rejected back to $86,000, Crypto Daily reported, inside a parallel channel on the daily chart. A confirmed breakout could open the door to $89,250, with $94,280 and a bull-market confirmation level of $97,880 further out.
Sources: CoinDesk, AMBCrypto, Crypto Daily
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