Bitcoin trades at $85,453, down 32% a year after its Oct. 6, 2025 record high of $126,000 — far milder than the 70%-82% drops that followed past cycle peaks. US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $89.9 million as the anniversary hit, even as analysts say reduced leverage and institutional inflows have reshaped this cycle's losses.
A year after hitting a record high above $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025, bitcoin is down just 32%, at $85,453. In traditional markets, a drop that size would count as a crash. For bitcoin, it is a far gentler slide than in past bear markets.
Past cycles cratered harder
Exactly a year after the 2013 peak, bitcoin was down 69.7%, and it was down 82.3% a year after the December 2017 top. A year after the November 2021 high, it was down 74.6%, according to CoinDesk calculations.
The bear market itself has also been milder. At its lowest, just below $59,000 on June 30, bitcoin was down more than 53% from its peak, versus drops of 77% to 85% in past cycles. Bitcoin has since climbed about 45% off that low, pushing its estimated market capitalization back near $1.7 trillion, Crypto Briefing reported.
ETF outflows mark the anniversary
US spot Bitcoin ETFs shed $89.9 million on Monday, reversing two sessions that had pulled in roughly $293 million, as bitcoin slipped below $86,000, Cointelegraph reported. Cumulative net inflows into the funds have since fallen 5.8%, from about $61.3 billion to $57.7 billion.
Institutional buyers, not retail leverage
Previous bull runs were fueled largely by retail traders and leverage, which often ended in blowups like the one seen in 2022. This cycle's rally instead drew on institutional inflows through regulated ETFs, asset managers and family offices, Tim Sun, senior researcher at HashKey Group, told CoinDesk. That kind of money behaves differently: according to Griffin Ardern, co-founder and vol desk PM at Primal Fund, "ETF allocation money rebalances to target weights — it buys weakness by construction."
Why the calm could break
The 30-year US Treasury yield has hit a high of 5.7%, a level last seen in April 2002, raising the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like bitcoin. Ardern said the depth of the next decline will hinge on that yield, not on bitcoin's chart. Meanwhile, recoveries following drawdowns of 30% or more have historically taken 28 to 38 months, and the market is only about twelve months removed from October's peak, Crypto Briefing noted.
Sources: CoinDesk, Cointelegraph, Crypto Briefing
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