Bitcoin trades at $63,000 after repeatedly failing to clear $65,500, the level that rejected its rallies in July. August has historically been Bitcoin's weakest month, and traders are watching the August 12 inflation report and a possible September rate hike. Forecasts range from $70,000 in a bullish case to $55,000 if the data turns hawkish.
Bitcoin trades at $63,000 today. It has lost half its value since peaking at $126,000 in October 2025. The token then bottomed at $58,000 on July 1, its lowest level in 21 months.
$65,500 Caps Every Bitcoin Rally
Bitcoin recovered 13% off that low through July, reaching $65,500, but it closed the month at $63,700. Buyers over the past five months paid an average of $68,000 to $69,000, so many now sell into every rally near $66,000 just to break even. Bitcoin's 50-month exponential moving average sits at $66,000, so it needs a weekly close above that level to break the resistance.
August Has Been Bitcoin's Worst Month
Bitcoin has closed August in the red in nine of the last 13 years, with a median return of negative 7.49%, its only negative median month on the calendar. Still, Bitcoin gained 65.32% in August 2017, so roughly one August in four has ended higher.
Fed Decision Looms Over September
The Federal Reserve does not meet in August, but futures traders already price a 60% chance of a rate hike at the September 16 meeting, which would mark the first U.S. increase in three years. Inflation is running at 3.7% against the Fed's 2% target. The July reading due August 12 could decide whether the hike goes ahead. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh also speaks at Jackson Hole from August 27 to 29.
Three Scenarios for August
Bitcoin could reach $68,000 to $70,000 if the August 12 report cools. Traders would then price the rate hike back out. 24/7 Wall St. expects Bitcoin to trade between $60,000 and $65,500 before the Fed's September 16 decision. Bitcoin could fall to $55,000 to $58,000 if inflation runs hot or Warsh sounds hawkish at Jackson Hole.
Source: 24/7 Wall St.
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