Bitcoin's 28-day volatility has fallen to 1.2%, near its lowest level of 2026, according to K33. The research firm expects volatility to pick up as the Fed's Oct. 28 decision and the Nov. 3 U.S. midterms approach.
Bitcoin's 28-day realized volatility is approaching its lowest level of the year, as traders show little appetite for added risk before the Federal Reserve's next rate decision and the U.S. midterm elections, according to research and brokerage firm K33.
K33 said in its latest report that volatility had fallen to 1.2%, with bitcoin spending the past week between $80,000 and $84,000. Bitcoin has traded in a narrow range since Sept. 21.
Quiet trading ahead of the Fed and midterms
Average daily spot trading volume was $2.5 billion, down 1% from the previous week. K33 compared the lack of participation to the market's recovery in 2023.
According to K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde: "Expansions typically follow such compressions, and we expect BTC volatility to pick up shortly," he said.
K33 said markets are pricing an 80% chance of no rate change at the Fed's Oct. 28 meeting. The U.S. midterm elections take place on Nov. 3.
ETF inflows rise despite the lull
Even with lower price movement, BlackRock's IBIT fund recorded inflows equivalent to 8,128 BTC on Oct. 19, its largest daily inflow in bitcoin terms since April 2025. Across all U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, net inflows totaled 6,436 BTC that day, per K33's data, while the other funds recorded a combined net outflow of 1,692 BTC.
Bitcoin and Nasdaq move in step again
K33 found that bitcoin has become highly correlated with the Nasdaq again after the relationship weakened through August and September, with returns for the two almost identical over the past fortnight. Bitcoin fell around 2% during last week's equity sell-off, when the Nasdaq recorded its worst week since early April 2025.
However, K33 cautioned that bitcoin's relative resilience did not amount to a fresh decoupling from equities. Bitcoin is trading at around $83,350 on Wednesday, according to The Block's prices page.
Source: The Block
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