Bitcoin has climbed more than 25% in August, breaking a 13-year seasonal pattern of weak August performance. Short-term holder selling pressure is now easing even as the coin trades near its recent highs, and on-chain data points to a stronger setup heading into September than the month's historically bearish record would suggest.
Bitcoin is breaking a run of weak Augusts that stretches back thirteen years. BTC has climbed more than 25% this month, a sharp reversal from the asset's historical pattern.
A short squeeze redirected attention to September
The rally triggered a short liquidation cascade, with over $800 million squeezed on August 19 alone. That event turned speculators' focus toward Bitcoin's potential end-of-month target and its outlook for next month.
According to CoinGlass statistics, September has traditionally been the most bearish month for Bitcoin, with an average ROI of -3%. Still, BTC has closed the month in the green for the past three cycles in a row, so another positive September cannot be ruled out. However, short-term holders appear to be deviating from that time-honored pattern.
Short-term holder selling pressure is subsiding
Short-term holders began profit-taking as Bitcoin rallied toward $80,000. Indeed, the amount of BTC sent by short-term holders crossed 60,000 BTC on August 20, suggesting profit-taking increased alongside the price move.
That said, FOMO now appears to be picking up. Profit-taking seems to be tapering off, with only 16,300 BTC transferred to exchanges in profit over the past 24 hours.
This indicates that short-term holder selling pressure is subsiding even though Bitcoin remains near its recent highs. Previously bearish on-chain indicators are now turning bullish, signaling that the market may be gearing up for a larger rally in September.
The $80,000 target comes back into focus
For thirteen years, August carried a negative median return of -6.99% for Bitcoin. This year is a clear outlier: BTC is up 25.58% for the month so far. If the price keeps climbing, August 2026 could finish as Bitcoin's best month since November 2024 and its best August since 2017.
Buying interest from U.S. investors also appears to be picking up. Bitcoin's Coinbase Premium Index has turned positive for the first time in over three months, suggesting buying pressure from U.S. investors has increased.
Given August's strong return, the uptick in demand does not look like a fluke — FOMO appears to be affecting U.S. market participants as well, with the market now hoping BTC/USD can close above $80,000 by the end of the month.
Source: AMBCrypto
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