Bitcoin trades near $77,381 with 68% of its supply now sitting in profit, up from 65% in May, leaving roughly $47 billion more in potential sell pressure before any run at $80,000. A late-August short squeeze, not organic demand, drove the move above $80,000, and fresh buyers now need to absorb both recent gains and a large pocket of long-term holders near breakeven.
A bigger profit cushion sits below $80,000
Bitcoin's climb toward $80,000 has left more of its supply in the green than the last time it traded at these levels. Glassnode data shows 68% of circulating supply in profit at $77,381, a three-point gap from May. That gap works out to roughly 600,000 additional BTC newly in profit, an amount worth about $47 billion at current prices.
The short-term holder cost basis now sits near $71,000, reset lower by months of trading through the summer range. Buyers who accumulated during that stretch are already sitting on gains, well before Bitcoin revisits its highs. Higher up, Glassnode's research points to roughly 1.05 million BTC concentrated between $83,000 and $86,000, held by long-term owners who would finally break even at that band.
The rally above $80,000 leaned on forced buying
Bitcoin touched roughly $81,000 in late August, its highest level in three months, before sliding back into the high $70,000s. That move relied heavily on a short squeeze: between $1.4 billion and $4 billion in short positions were liquidated during the rally, forcing traders betting on lower prices to buy back in. Analysts at Glassnode and Bitfinex say the speed of the ascent owed more to forced buying than to conviction-driven accumulation.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs posted a seven-day average intake of $290 million per day during August's rally. That flow has since reversed, though: US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw about $236 million of outflows this week, led mostly by IBIT, as Bitcoin slid back toward $77,000.
Macro tailwinds have inverted into headwinds
The conditions that helped fuel August's rally have reversed. The Treasury's Aug. 19 buyback announcement briefly pulled the 10-year yield toward 4.6%, but the yield sat back near 4.8% eight trading sessions later, erasing that relief. Brent crude has since settled around $95.63 as fighting between the US and Iran resumes.
Futures markets now assign roughly two-thirds odds to a September Fed rate hike. A dense macro calendar follows: the August jobs report lands Sept. 4, CPI data on Sept. 11, and the Fed's meeting runs Sept. 15 to 16, ahead of a Sept. 25 options expiry carrying roughly $14 billion of open interest, much of it clustered above $80,000.
If jobs and inflation data cool hike odds and ETF flows turn positive again, Bitcoin could clear the $83,000-to-$86,000 band and open a path toward the options-implied range near $89,700. If instead outflows persist and yields stay elevated, Bitcoin risks losing its $71,000 short-term holder cost basis and retesting the $62,000-to-$65,000 zone.
Sources: CryptoSlate, Crypto Briefing
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