Bitcoin's spent output profit ratio has held above its breakeven level of 1 for three straight weeks, the metric's longest bullish stretch of 2026. ARK Invest's David Puell still sees downside risk for BTC/USD despite the onchain profitability signal.
SOPR posts its longest bullish streak of the year
Bitcoin's spent output profit ratio (SOPR) has stayed above its breakeven level of 1 since Aug. 19, its longest run above that mark in 2026. SOPR measures whether coins moving onchain do so at a higher or lower price than their previous transaction, and the metric currently reads 1.002, meaning coins are mostly moving in profit.
Onchain analytics suite Checkonchain says the pattern in short-term-holder SOPR data is starting to look more like early bull market recoveries rather than a typical bear market rally that gets sold into. In bear markets, the firm noted, rallies back into profit tend to get sold, while in bull markets, sharp dips below breakeven tend to become buy-the-dip setups.
Puell warns downside risk remains despite the recovery signal
BTC/USD holds a local range around $80,000 while the SOPR streak continues, but the pair could still hit new macro lows this cycle, according to ARK Invest portfolio manager David Puell.
In a Sept. 4 interview with CryptoQuant, Puell said more evidence was needed before assuming the next bear-market floor is already in, and that further upside from Bitcoin's 25% August gain was the less likely outcome heading into Q4. According to David Puell: "In our view, as of now, we leave it as a downside risk," he said.
Puell added that SOPR must stay above 1 for an extended period, with investors realizing profits consistently without price falling back to a new low, before he shifts his long-term bias. Bitcoin also still needs to post higher highs and higher lows, a pattern that remains absent on weekly time frames.
In late August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the bear market was already over, pointing to the firm's proprietary Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator.
Source: Cointelegraph.com News
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