Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield sits at -0.17, weaker than gold's -0.41, according to CoinDesk. Separately, bitcoin's own correlation with gold has climbed to 0.59, the highest level since 2020, as fiscal-sustainability concerns pull both assets in the same direction.
Bitcoin's 90-day correlation with the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stands at -0.17. Gold's correlation with the same yield is -0.41, according to TradingView and CoinDesk data. Rising yields typically weigh on assets like gold and bitcoin that generate no cash flow of their own, yet bitcoin's price has barely moved with borrowing costs, while gold's has.
Bitcoin-gold correlation hits a six-year high
As of today, the 90-day correlation between bitcoin and gold's daily returns stood at 0.59, the highest level since 2020. Earlier in 2026, that same correlation was near zero, according to Grayscale research published on August 27. Bitwise Investments data showed the reading had already crossed above 0.5 by August 31, as fiscal-sustainability worries pulled the two assets in the same direction.
Treasury's buyback expansion sparked the latest move
The catalyst was the U.S. Treasury's August 19 announcement that it would double its liquidity-support buybacks for longer-dated bonds. The program grew from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, with the larger purchases due to start September 9. Bitcoin responded with a 22.4% weekly gain, its strongest since March 2024. Gold climbed around 5% over the same stretch. The backdrop: U.S. gross federal debt had surpassed $40 trillion in August 2026, reaching roughly $40.13 trillion by mid-month.
A structural difference behind the split
Bitcoin's issuance is fixed by protocol and indifferent to what the Federal Reserve or the Treasury does, unlike gold production, which responds, however sluggishly, to price signals. That difference doesn't make bitcoin completely safe from bond-market swings. But it does suggest the asset may be better positioned to decouple from yield-driven headwinds than gold has been.
Sources: CoinDesk, Crypto Briefing
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