Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management, says bitcoin could follow gold's path to a $30 trillion market. He also names investor behavior as the biggest risk to that outlook.
Bitcoin could follow gold into a much larger market as institutional ownership expands, according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer of Bitwise Asset Management. He made the case in an Oct. 9 post on X.
Gold's ETF-era growth as the template
Hougan contrasted gold's estimated $2 trillion to $2.5 trillion market capitalization when the first U.S. gold ETF launched in 2004 with its later expansion to roughly $30 trillion. He put bitcoin's market value at roughly $2 trillion when its ETFs launched in 2024.
In a video clip shared by the media outlet Simply Bitcoin, Hougan said: "it could easily do what gold did, which is run up to $30 trillion".
The comparison builds on Hougan's argument that sustained ETF buying could tighten bitcoin's available supply. Bitcoin was trading at $82,766 at the time of writing.
A separate $1 million scenario
Hougan's earlier scenario for bitcoin reaching $1 million per coin used a different calculation. In a March 10 memo, he envisioned the combined gold-bitcoin store-of-value market reaching approximately $121 trillion within 10 years if historical growth continued. Bitcoin would need about 17% of that pool to support the price.
Bitwise data through Aug. 31 showed bitcoin's rolling 90-day correlation with gold above 0.5, its highest level since 2020.
Investor behavior as the main risk
Hougan identified investors' ability to endure rising and falling markets as his biggest concern, ahead of threats to bitcoin's operating rules or security from quantum computers. Excessive leverage and exhaustion from market swings have already hurt participants, he observed.
He also suggested keeping some capital invested with a 10-year horizon to see how the thesis develops.
Source: Bitcoin News
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