Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen says the market is mispricing Circle Internet Financial as the stablecoin sector heads toward trillions of dollars. He argues Circle's payments infrastructure, not just its stablecoin reserves, is the part of the business investors are missing, even after a sharp post-IPO slide in its shares.
Circle Internet Financial's payments push is being "very mispriced by the market," Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen said in an interview on CoinDesk's Public Keys. Circle shares have dropped roughly 17-20% since the company's public debut, as investors weigh regulatory risk to stablecoin yield.
A second business beyond reserves
Rasmussen's thesis isn't only about reserve revenue growing alongside stablecoin supply. He also sees Circle's payments infrastructure as a major second business, and compared its potential trajectory to global payments giants including Visa and Mastercard.
Central to that case is Arc, a layer-1 blockchain Circle built to facilitate stablecoin payment activity, which Rasmussen said could test whether the company expands beyond issuing stablecoins into the infrastructure that moves them. He said investors should watch whether that infrastructure gets adopted and integrated into the traditional financial system.
Rasmussen expects the stablecoin market to grow from roughly $300 billion to between $3 trillion and $5 trillion, and said Circle is well positioned as U.S. stablecoin regulation takes shape, with its existing market share giving it a head start. Banks, consumer companies and other incumbents are preparing their own stablecoins, but he doesn't see that as a major threat, pointing to initiatives such as OpenUSD as evidence of growing incumbent interest rather than a threat to Circle's growth.
The bull case in numbers
Bitwise, including CIO Matt Hougan, projects Circle could reach a $75 billion market capitalization by 2030. That target assumes the stablecoin market swells to between $1.9 trillion and $2 trillion, with Circle capturing about 25% of it.
In a $1 trillion stablecoin market, Rasmussen estimates Circle could generate roughly $10 billion in annual revenue. At $5 trillion, that figure climbs to approximately $50 billion.
USDC supply stood at around $62 billion shortly after Circle's IPO in June 2025. Tether remains the market leader by raw supply, but Circle has carved out its own lane through regulatory compliance and reserve transparency. The question for the next year, Rasmussen said, is how Circle's economics change as adoption grows and its payments infrastructure gains traction.
Sources: CoinDesk, Crypto Briefing
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