Attacks on cargo ships near NATO members Romania and Bulgaria have continued despite the alliance's plan to bolster its Black Sea flank. Military analysts say they have little doubt the strikes are Russian, while grain exports from Russia and Ukraine have slumped.
Another ship was struck just outside Romanian waters on October 23, three days after NATO said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to its eastern flank in the Black Sea. That announcement followed seven strikes on cargo ships near Romania and Bulgaria last month. Last week, naval drones sank a Greek container ship in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone.
Analysts point to Russia and a test of NATO limits
Military analysts said they had little doubt that Russia carried out the attacks. Shipping security firm Ambrey said a naval drone seen on video of the last strike resembled a Russian variant. Russia denies targeting Ukraine's neighbours with drones.
Sidharth Kaushal, a senior fellow at the London-based RUSI think-tank, said: "I think it’s undeniably an escalation." Iulia Joja of the Middle East Institute said Russia's attacks take into account the West's aversion to escalation.
Bucharest has accused Russia of "systematic" strikes on civilian ships but has not attributed individual attacks, citing the need for forensic evidence. Sofia has not blamed Russia.
Shipping attacks multiply and grain exports shrink
Ambrey Analytics counted 317 merchant and other vessels hit in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October. That is a more than fourfold rise on the 74 vessels struck in the previous half-year.
Exports have suffered. Russia exported just 0.3 million metric tons of grain through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September, down from 4.74 million metric tons a year earlier. Ukraine suspended operations at its Black Sea ports in late July and diverted volumes to Danube river ports, but its port grain exports still slumped to 0.81 million metric tons in September from 2.1 million a year before.
Ceasefire talk, with Russia opposed
Turkey is waiting for a response from Moscow and Kyiv on a narrow maritime ceasefire proposal. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Saturday there was growing international interest in a limited ceasefire. Russia has rejected the idea, saying it would provide respite to Kyiv.
Source: Investing.com
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