Brent crude returned to $96 per barrel as hopes for peace deals faded and Houthi strikes hit Saudi pumping stations. The move undercuts the IEA's hopes for a supply glut in Q4 2026, while OPEC raised its 2027 demand growth forecast.
ICE Brent climbed back to $96 per barrel as geopolitical risk returned to the market. Optimism about potential peace deals faded in early Friday trading.
The rebound follows a post-midterms price collapse in the US. President Trump suggested he does not need a deal with Iran, while Israel is pressing to resume military strikes against Tehran.
Russia-Ukraine outlook worsens and Houthi strikes hit Saudi stations
The outlook for a peaceful settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war has worsened, and several Houthi strikes hit Saudi pumping stations. Together they cast a shadow on the IEA's hopes for a supply glut in Q4 2026.
Meanwhile, the Saudi Energy Ministry reported a 26% month-on-month jump in oil production to 10.56 million b/d last month. Supply to the market, however, was only 9.2 million b/d, which suggests Saudi Aramco puts some 40 million barrels into inventories.
OPEC keeps its demand forecast
OPEC kept its 2026 demand growth forecast steady at 180,000 b/d. It raised its 2027 rise in global consumption to 2.55 million b/d, despite weakening Chinese demand and rising non-OPEC supply.
Aluminium backwardation widens as copper extends losses
Aluminium's cash premium over three-month futures on the London Metal Exchange, known as backwardation, surged to almost $180 per tonne this week.
Copper, by contrast, posted its fifth straight weekly loss, falling below $13,500 per tonne.
Source: Oilprice.com
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