A renewed crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent crude back toward $95 a barrel, and a fresh probability model puts the odds of a return to $100 within five trading days at roughly 39-49%. The same escalation is feeding into inflation concerns that could keep the Federal Reserve on a tighter policy path.
A new crisis around the Strait of Hormuz has quickly brought the geopolitical premium back into oil prices, and Brent crude is now trading near $95. The $100-a-barrel level no longer looks like an extreme scenario, according to analysis from MQL5's Traders' Blogs.
The Strait remains one of the world's key chokepoints for energy supplies. Any further disruption to shipping, or a fresh escalation between the US and Iran, could quickly add several more dollars to Brent prices.
Higher oil prices add extra inflation pressure as rising fuel and transport costs spread through the economy, making the Fed's job more difficult, the analysis says. For the central bank, this is another argument for keeping policy tight, and if the oil shock proves persistent, markets may have to price in the risk of higher interest rates for longer than previously expected. That widens Brent's reach beyond UKOIL trading, into the dollar, bond yields, gold and stock indices.
Over a five-trading-day horizon running to about September 10, 2026, the probability of Brent touching $100 stands at roughly 39-49%. Should the current upward momentum continue and geopolitical tensions increase, that figure could rise to around 60%.
By contrast, the probability of a pullback to $90 sits at about 36-47%. That figure would fall to roughly 15-20% if the current upward momentum persists.
With Brent near $95, the market currently sits almost evenly split between the two scenarios. However, continued upward momentum would make $100 a more likely target than a return to $90. The main driver over the next few days may be headlines from the Strait of Hormuz rather than Brent's technical picture, with a single escalation headline capable of quickly shifting these odds.
Source: MQL5: Traders' Blogs
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