Canadian pipeline companies are proposing at least six new or expanded projects that would lift export capacity by 45%, or 2.25 million barrels per day, by 2035. But oil sands producers remain reluctant to commit to the output growth needed to fill them, a mismatch that highlights how Canada may struggle to achieve Prime Minister Mark Carney's "energy superpower" ambitions.
Six pipelines, an uncertain supply base
Canadian pipeline firms are proposing billions of dollars in new projects even as oil sands companies hold off on major production expansions amid uncertainty over climate policy and long-term global demand. At least six pipeline projects are underway or proposed to move Canadian oil to the United States or to Pacific coast export markets.
If all six are built, Canada's export pipeline capacity would rise 45%, or 2.25 million barrels per day, by 2035, according to a Reuters calculation. Filling that capacity, however, would require Canadian oil supply to grow by more than a third by 2034, nearly double its current annual growth rate.
Both Suncor Energy and Canadian Natural Resources said this month they are not yet willing to accelerate production increases. Enbridge said in July it is postponing a second phase of its Mainline pipeline expansion, as customers failed to commit to added capacity. According to Reuters: "Producers are behaving with discipline," Enbridge executive vice-president Colin Gruending said on a conference call.
Slower investment since the last oil sands boom
Canada is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, shipping about 90% of its output to the United States, and existing export pipeline capacity is almost full. Canadian oil production grew 4% in 2025 to a record 5.35 million barrels per day, with analysts expecting 3% to 4% growth in 2026, compared with 8% or higher growth rates during the 2000s and 2010s.
Annual capital investment in the oil sands peaked in 2014 at C$35 billion, versus C$14.2 billion in 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Suncor's Fort Hills, which started operating in 2018, was the last major new oil sands project; companies have since focused on expanding existing operations.
Proposed growth still falls short
Energy consultancy Novi Labs identified 19 oil sands growth projects that could add 652,000 barrels per day by 2037, though only some have received final investment decisions. Including projects still in companies' medium- or long-term plans added another 730,000 bpd, but that combined total still falls short of the growth needed to fill the proposed pipelines by more than 850,000 bpd.
Carney has pledged to speed permitting and ease climate rules to support new investment, and many of the policy changes negotiated between industry and the federal and Alberta governments have yet to be drafted into final legislation.
Sources: Commodities & Futures News, Reuters
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