Prime Minister Mark Carney is backing a new pipeline to boost Canadian oil production and exports. Industry forecasts and interviews cited by Reuters suggest that much of the growth in oil sands output is likely to come from automation and efficiency gains, not large-scale hiring.
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney is betting a new pipeline can help revive the country's oil industry and reduce its dependence on the United States. Bringing back jobs will be much harder, according to Reuters.
The pipeline would carry 1 million barrels of crude oil a day to a port on the Pacific coast, expanding export capacity to Asia. Asked about the regional economy, Carney, a former central banker, cautioned against expecting a return to the boom days. He said, according to Reuters: "I would use ‘sustained growth’."
Forecasts point to fewer oil sands jobs
An August forecast by Energy Safety Canada projects oil sands employment will fall by 920 jobs or 4% by 2035, even as production grows 6%. A spokesperson for the group said a new West Coast pipeline would likely reverse the projected decline but may not add many permanent jobs.
Fort McMurray was nicknamed Fort McMoney in its heyday. Annual oil sands capital investment fell from a C$35 billion peak in 2014 to C$14.2 billion in 2024, according to Statistics Canada. Meanwhile, Alberta's oil and gas sector employs 435,000 people today, 85,000 fewer than in 2014, according to data from Alberta's Servus Credit Union.
Private funding and political risk
No oil sands company has committed the C$100 billion in private investment needed to fill the proposed pipeline and build the carbon capture and storage project Carney has made a condition of federal approval.
Oil Sands Alliance head Kendall Dilling said the projects could create thousands of jobs across Canada by the mid-2030s. However, many would be temporary construction jobs rather than permanent oil-industry jobs.
The politics cut both ways. Critics on the left say fast-tracking regulatory approval risks sacrificing the environment, while those on the right argue deregulation should deliver more oil jobs. Carney's approval rating was 62% in a September poll from Angus Reid, though public sentiment on energy and the environment can shift quickly, according to a Calgary political scientist.
Source: Commodities & Futures News
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