China's oil demand will drop 8.9% in 2026, Sinopec's research arm says, citing high crude prices and rising electric-vehicle use. The forecast follows a 2025 demand peak. Gasoline and diesel use are set to fall while jet fuel keeps growing, and refiners are already running plants below capacity.
China's oil demand is set to fall by 600,000 barrels per day in 2026, an 8.9% drop from the previous year, according to the Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute. The institute attributes the decline to high crude oil prices and increased adoption of electric vehicles.
Demand has passed its peak
The forecast confirms a turning point for the world's largest oil importer. Sinopec said China's oil demand peaked in 2025 and is projected to fall below 750 million tons by 2030, before eventually declining to approximately 300 million tons by 2060.
Within that total, fuel types are moving in different directions. Gasoline demand is expected to decrease 8.7% year-over-year in 2026, while diesel demand is forecast to drop 11.4%. Jet fuel is the exception: the research institute projects its demand will rise 1.3%.
Refiners already feel the slowdown
The pullback in demand is showing up in refining data. China's refining capacity reached 952 million tons per year in 2026, Sinopec reported. The country's crude runs fell 5.4% to 697 million tons in the second and third quarters, with the utilization rate dropping to 73.2%.
The institute's outlook is not entirely one of decline. It also noted that China's industrial gas demand is expected to grow by 50 billion cubic meters by 2030, pointing to a broader shift in the country's energy mix rather than a simple retreat from fuel consumption.
Source: Investing.com
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