Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner has turned bullish on gold for the first time in 2026, pointing to five converging catalysts he says create asymmetric upside for gold and silver. His analysis cites options-market positioning, short covering potential, Federal Reserve repricing, central-bank buying and sidelined retail demand as the drivers behind the call.
Citadel Securities' Scott Rubner has started advocating for adding structural exposure to gold for the first time in 2026. According to Rubner: "one of the more compelling upside setups we have seen in precious metals in months". Rubner analyzed the SPDR Gold Shares ETF and the iShares Silver Trust as the two instruments for gaining direct exposure.
Options markets flash a bullish setup
In GLD, implied volatility is lifting from a low base while put/call skew has inverted to its deepest level since February, a configuration Rubner's team says has historically signaled accumulating bullish conviction. The firm notes the same dynamic in SLV, with implied volatility beginning to lift and skew inverting as well, suggesting silver is following gold's lead in repricing upside risk.
Short positioning could turn into fuel
Rubner's CTA analysis shows both gold and silver held net short as of August 6, a condition the firm views as fuel rather than a headwind. With positioning still offsides against an improving macro backdrop, the firm says renewed upside momentum could drive systematic buying and add another source of demand. The implication: a price breakout could trigger a covering rally among trend-following funds currently on the wrong side of the trade.
Fed repricing and China's buying add tailwinds
Rubner points to markets repricing the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish path as a direct tailwind for non-yielding assets, with continued dollar weakness compounding that dynamic. The firm also flags Treasury and FX intervention concerns as reinforcing gold's role as a reserve asset alongside accelerating central-bank demand. Elsewhere, data compiled by Citadel Securities shows China's gold purchases have been accelerating on a monthly basis since at least December 2024, part of what the firm describes as a broader recovery in official-sector demand globally.
Retail could be the wildcard
Rubner sees the most underappreciated upside in the retail angle, particularly for silver. He observes that precious metals have been largely crowded out of retail attention by the AI trade, leaving a large pool of potential incremental buyers on the sidelines. Rubner points to the January-February rally as a recent proof of concept for how quickly retail can become a meaningful source of incremental demand.
Source: Commodities & Futures News
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