Citi and ANZ have both raised their Brent crude price forecasts as Middle East supply disruptions squeeze the global oil market. Citi lifted its Q3 2026 estimate to $86 a barrel, while ANZ pushed its short-term forecast to $95, citing a US blockade of Iran and reduced flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Citi raised its third-quarter 2026 Brent forecast to $86 per barrel, pointing to a US blockade of Iran and reduced oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The bank called the current situation unsustainable.
It expects renewed dealmaking or other developments to allow the Strait of Hormuz to reopen during the fourth quarter. Citi estimates that a reopening would create an oil-market surplus of between 3 million and 4 million barrels per day, up from its previous estimate of roughly 2 million barrels per day.
Separately, ANZ raised its short-term Brent crude forecast to $95 per barrel. The bank described the oil market as entering a delicate adaptation phase as inventories decline, and it expects additional demand destruction will be required to rebuild them.
ANZ estimates the conflict will remove between 2.3 billion and 2.4 billion barrels of Persian Gulf oil supply during 2026. It expects cumulative supply losses to exceed 2 billion barrels by the end of October.
The revised forecasts reflect each bank's own assessment of the Middle East disruptions and potential changes in flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Source: InvestorsHub
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