Citigroup cut its 12-month forecasts for bitcoin and ether, pointing to weakening investor appetite, negative ETF flows and stalled U.S. crypto legislation. The revision landed after spot bitcoin funds posted their worst month on record in June and the price chart flashed a rare bearish signal.
Citigroup slashed its 12-month target for bitcoin to $82,000 from $112,000 and cut its ether forecast to $2,240 from $3,175, in a note dated Tuesday. The brokerage tied the downgrade to fading investor appetite, negative exchange-traded fund flows and a lack of progress on U.S. digital asset legislation.
The revision followed steep declines in both assets. Bitcoin was last trading at $58,864.27, its weakest level since September 2024, having halved from an all-time high of $126,223.18 in October. Ether was last at $1,585.63, its lowest since April 2025.
ETF outflows drive the downgrade
Citi said the cut was driven by its decision to lower its 12-month net ETF inflow assumption to zero from $10 billion. According to Reuters, the brokerage wrote: "ETF flows, an important driver of prices, have turned negative recently."
Those outflows showed up across the market. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $4.5 billion in net outflows in June, their worst month since launching in January 2024, per SoSoValue data. That beat the previous record of $3.48 billion in February 2025 by 29%, with BlackRock’s IBIT accounting for $3.55 billion of the total.
Citi also flagged that slow progress on U.S. crypto legislation and concerns over potential bitcoin selling by digital asset treasury companies have weighed on sentiment, coinciding with a rotation into AI-related assets.
A bearish signal on the monthly chart
The chart told a similar story. Bitcoin fell by 20% to under $60,000 in June, its worst monthly performance since June 2022. The monthly candlestick appeared as a near-wickless red body, which traders call a "Marubozu" and read as a sign of one-directional selling.
CoinDesk noted the pattern is consistent with recent analysts’ predictions of a deeper slide and an eventual bottom in the $48,000 to $55,000 range. For now, Citi expects broader investor adoption to stay on hold until a new catalyst emerges.
Sources: Reuters, CoinDesk, CoinDesk
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