The CLARITY Act is unlikely to clear the Senate before its August recess, pushing hopes for the bill toward November. Wintermute’s Ron Hammond says the votes exist but election-year politics have stalled progress, while Polymarket now gives the bill a 37% chance of becoming law this year.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has said the CLARITY Act stands no chance of passing before the August recess, turning attention to a possible window after the November midterm elections, when the political turmoil may subside.
Election politics, not the vote count
Ron Hammond, Head of Policy and Advocacy at Wintermute, argues the bill keeps its bipartisan support but has become a victim of election-year politics. According to Hammond: “The votes are there, but the election politics are louder”, and he expects that pressure to dissipate after November. His reading differs from Anthony Scaramucci, who counts only 52 votes in favor.
Trump’s crypto dealings deepen the fight
The controversy has intensified over President Trump’s crypto business activities, with Democratic lawmakers pushing rules that would cap elected officials’ ability to profit from crypto pursuits. Republicans and Trump have suggested they are willing to consider such measures, even though opponents claim they include a number of loopholes. The latest draft assigns Department of Justice–led ethics provisions to restrict Trump and other federal officials, yet Democrats argue that placing sole power in the DOJ is not regulation at all.
Banks and a shrinking window
Hammond also credited banks and other crypto opponents with dragging out the bill by extending discussions. Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is reportedly urging Democrats to shift their election messaging toward accusations of corruption against Trump, a strategy Hammond thinks could make lawmakers less willing to back a major crypto bill before the elections.
Sentiment has cooled with the delays. Polymarket now puts the odds of the CLARITY Act becoming law this year at 37%, down from above 80% previously. Even after the elections, Congress will have little time to revisit the bill, with government funding and defense legislation likely to be major priorities for the remainder of the legislative calendar.
Source: CoinGape
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