The CLARITY Act's chances of reaching a Senate vote before the August recess have dropped to 22% on Polymarket, down sharply from 36% just days earlier, as Democrats threaten to withhold the votes needed for cloture. Senate Majority Leader John Thune could file for cloture as soon as Wednesday, but the earliest procedural vote would land on August 7, the final day before lawmakers leave Washington. Separately, the SEC says it won't wait for Congress to act.
Prediction platform Polymarket now puts the CLARITY Act's odds of a Senate vote before recess at 22%, down sharply from 36% just days ago. The crypto market-structure bill needs 60 votes to clear a cloture motion, and Senate Democrats say they will withhold them without a bipartisan ethics deal.
Democrats Hold the Line on Ethics
Senator Angela Alsobrooks dismissed a Republican proposal to leave crypto-conflict enforcement to the Justice Department, calling it "wild and unserious." Senator Ruben Gallego said Democrats are trying to engage constructively, but sees no sign Republicans want a deal. A bipartisan ethics agreement and the stablecoin yield clause remain the two unresolved sticking points, according to CoinGape.
Three Paths Before the Recess
Eleanor Terrett said Thune could seek cloture as early as Wednesday once procedural hurdles tied to the continuing resolution clear. Even then, the 30-hour debate clock only starts once cloture is invoked, pushing the actual Senate vote to Friday at the earliest.
A second path, unanimous consent, needs no objecting senator — unlikely given the standoff. The third option is no vote at all, with the Senate instead working through judicial nominations and a Russia sanctions package before recess.
SEC Says It's Ready to Move Alone
Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan said crypto adoption won't stall even if the CLARITY Act slips, and expects the SEC to introduce rules that could favor the industry further. SEC Chair Paul Atkins said the agency is ready to write crypto regulations without waiting on Congress.
WSJ Editorial Draws a Fact-Check Fight
The Wall Street Journal's editorial board came out against the bill on August 4, arguing stablecoin issuers could dodge the GENIUS Act's interest ban through exchange "rewards" deals and that decentralized networks could skirt anti-money-laundering rules. Andreessen Horowitz's Miles Jennings compared the claims against the bill's July 22 draft and said CLARITY actually expands the rewards ban to exchanges and their affiliates, with penalties up to $5 million per violation. He added that a decentralized system with a controlling operator already fails the bill's own DeFi test, so it gets regulated as an intermediary rather than exempted.
Sources: CoinGape, Coinpedia, CryptoPotato
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