Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC on July 21 that the Clarity Act is nearly across the finish line, even as some estimates put its odds of passing this year at just 30%. Ethereum, XRP, and Solana are the coins most exposed to the outcome: a signed bill is seen as a green light for institutional buying, while a stalled one would stretch out the current bear market. Congress has since left for its August recess without resolving the dispute holding the bill up.
On July 21, Coinbase Global CEO Brian Armstrong told CNBC the Clarity Act had reached the "one-yard line." Yet the odds of passage this year are just 30% by some estimates, leaving Ethereum, XRP, and Solana holders waiting on whether that final yard gets crossed.
Why a Law Would Change More Than Guidance
The SEC and CFTC jointly classified Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, XRP, and a dozen other cryptoassets as digital commodities rather than securities on March 17, putting their oversight under the CFTC's lighter-touch regime instead of the SEC's. That guidance is not a law, though, and a future set of regulators could rewrite it with a memo. Written into statute, the same rules would become durable, letting financial firms plan around them and commit more capital than they otherwise would.
Coinbase has a stake beyond the market reaction, too. Armstrong has pushed for elements of the Clarity Act, so its passage would hand the industry a law shaped partly by him and his company, positioning Coinbase to keep Congress's ear on future crypto rules.
The Likeliest Path Forward
The most likely scenario has the Clarity Act signed into law late this year or early next year. If that happens, there probably won't be immediate fireworks in the market.
But its passage would work as a green light for institutional capital allocators who had been waiting for legal cover to start buying, helping the bear market wrap up within a quarter of the bill's signing. Solana, XRP, and Ethereum would likely be the first stops for that capital, since all three are hubs for the asset tokenization work institutions are focused on right now.
Or the Bill Stalls Again
If the bill doesn't pass this year, or slips further into next year or beyond, the bear market would drag on longer, and the market's recent momentum and early signs of recovery would fade back into stagnation. The holdup right now is a package of ethics rules for government officials, including the president; the market-structure and asset-classification provisions are far less contentious.
With Congress now on its August recess, the crypto majors will most likely keep grinding sideways until the bill comes up again in the fall.
Source: The Motley Fool
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