CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even if ETFs and public companies unwind their holdings. Bloomberg Intelligence strategist Mike McGlone forecasts a drop toward $10,000. A $30,000 price is about three times McGlone's $10,000 forecast.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju argues Bitcoin could find support near $30,000 even if institutional investors unwind their accumulated exposure. That scenario would require reversing roughly $58 billion in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and selling the 1.3 million BTC that publicly traded companies have accumulated.
According to Ju, writing on X on Oct. 16 in response to McGlone: "Even if all of it leaves, on-chain cost basis still puts the floor near $30k,"
The scale of a full institutional exit
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted $56.95 billion in cumulative net inflows through Oct. 16, according to Farside Investors. CoinGecko tracks 1.302 million BTC across 180 public-company treasuries, and those holdings are worth approximately $106 billion at recent prices.
Strategy alone owns 848,250 BTC, roughly 65% of the public-company total. A broad corporate retreat would therefore be heavily shaped by the financing decisions of a single company.
Bitcoin was trading near $82,000 over the weekend after slipping below $80,000 during the week's selloff. A fall to $30,000 would erase roughly 63% of its value from that level, which makes Ju's estimate a severe bear market outcome.
Why $10,000 would break historical precedent
Ju's assessment rests on Bitcoin's market-value-to-realized-value ratio, or MVRV. Bitcoin's realized price stood near $53,855 on Oct. 18, according to Perly's on-chain data. Using that as a fixed reference, a $30,000 price would put MVRV around 0.56, while McGlone's $10,000 target would put it near 0.19.
Ju argued that Bitcoin's worst historical market bottom occurred around 0.6 MVRV. More recent major bottoms came around 0.69 in 2018 and 0.78 in 2022.
McGlone points to broader risk assets
McGlone, however, sees support toward $10,000, especially if US equities suffer a 20% drawdown. He argued that Bitcoin's rise above $100,000 in 2025, gold's surge past $5,000, and rising government bond yields could signal a reversal across risk assets.
Signs of institutional selling have already appeared, on a much smaller scale. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $900 million in net outflows across the two weeks ending Oct. 16, according to Farside Investors.
Source: CryptoSlate
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