Ethereum has traded below its cost basis since February, which CryptoQuant calls "cheap." Yet the firm warns a durable bottom may still be far off: its Realized Price Bands metric points to $1.15K as a possible final floor, while three Bitcoin-relative signals show ETH has not yet bottomed.
CryptoQuant says Ethereum could still slide to $1.15K before it marks a durable cycle bottom, even after months of looking cheap. The firm ties that level to the Realized Price Bands metric, which flagged the true bottom of the 2022 bear market when ETH touched its lower band. From a press-time price of $1,885, reaching $1.15K would mean a 38% drop.
Ethereum first turned "cheap" in February, when its price slipped below the overall cost basis of $2.3K. With more holders sitting at a loss, both selling pressure and downside risk ease. But CryptoQuant argues that a low valuation alone has not confirmed a floor.
Three signals still short of a bottom
The firm weighs three measures against Bitcoin — exchange inflows, valuation, and spot Ethereum ETF holdings. The first, the ETH/BTC Exchange Inflows Ratio, gauges relative selling pressure. It reads 0.8, only halfway to the 0.4 level seen at the 2020 and 2025 bottoms.
The second, the ETH/BTC MVRV valuation metric, tells a similar story. ETH reversed in both prior cycles after slipping to 0.025 oversold territory, yet it now sits slightly above 0.05. Third, relative ETH/BTC ETF holdings turned positive in H2 for the first time since last year, though demand has not fallen to the levels seen in 2025.
Only spot volumes and the realized price bands currently place ETH near past bottom territory.
Staking demand hits a record
Over 41 million ETH now sits in loss, while a near-identical amount is staked at a record 33% staking ratio. Staking demand set a 2026 high, with over 40 million ETH staked and more than 2.5 million waiting to join. Whether that staking demand further lowers downside risk remains to be seen.
According to CryptoQuant, a final bottom and the ETH outperformance that would follow "may still take more time to form".
Source: AMBCrypto
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