Deutsche Bank now expects three consecutive quarter-point Fed hikes, in December, January and March, taking the target range to 4.50%–4.75%. Bitcoin sits near $74,000 as US Bitcoin and Ether ETFs lose money and analysts look for fresh spot buying.
Deutsche Bank added a January hike to its forecast after October's hotter-than-expected US inflation report. The bank now expects 25-basis-point moves at each of the next three meetings.
Forecast starts from a 3.75%–4.00% range
Starting from the current 3.75%–4.00% range, three quarter-point moves would add 75 basis points. The implied ranges are 4.00%–4.25% after December, 4.25%–4.50% after January and 4.50%–4.75% after March, if the Fed follows that sequence.
Reuters said Deutsche Bank did not rule out a half-point hike after comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, but continued to favor a smaller step. The forecast is the bank's own assessment, and the Federal Open Market Committee has yet to make those decisions.
Core prices stay firm in October
Consumer prices rose 0.4% in October, following September's 0.6% gain, while economists polled by Reuters had expected 0.3%. Excluding food and energy, prices rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month.
Bitcoin fell below $74,000 after the release. At the Nov. 10 snapshot, it traded around $73,784, with weekly losses of 4.5%.
ETF outflows precede the revised call
US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $1.28 billion in net withdrawals during Nov. 2–6, while Ether funds lost $365.2 million, according to Farside figures. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for roughly $1.21 billion of the Bitcoin withdrawals.
Bitget Wallet analysts said the selloff had removed speculative excess but lacked the fresh buying needed for a lasting recovery. They identified $73,000–$74,000 as support, and said a decisive break below $73,000 could expose $68,000.
CoinShares managing director Marc des Ligneris described continued caution in options positioning: "investors are still paying up to hedge."
Sources: crypto.news, Reuters, Bureau of Labor Statistics
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