The US Energy Information Administration raised its 2027 diesel forecast by 12%, to $5.03 a gallon. Higher fuel costs could keep inflation elevated and delay monetary easing, which could constrain risk appetite for Bitcoin.
The US Energy Information Administration raised its forecast for next year's retail diesel price by 12%, reducing the fuel-cost relief it previously expected. That leaves less room for falling fuel costs to cool inflation and bring the lower interest rates that could help Bitcoin.
Diesel forecast rises despite cheaper crude
The EIA's November 10 outlook puts the 2027 US diesel average at $5.03 a gallon, up from $4.49 in its October 6 forecast. The change is a revision to the same annual forecast, not a 12% increase in observed pump prices.
Diesel is still projected to fall from a forecast $5.25 average in 2026. The EIA also expects Brent crude to average $86 a barrel in 2027, down from a projected $97 this year.
Cheaper crude does not guarantee a matching decline in finished-fuel costs, however. The EIA assumes petroleum-product supply constraints will continue through the end of 2027, supporting wider crack spreads. The agency attributes elevated refining margins to damaged refineries in the Middle East and Russia, which reduced product exports.
Fuel costs and Bitcoin risk appetite
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman warned in a November 10 speech that higher production and transportation costs could pass into consumer prices and keep core inflation elevated. She favors looking through temporary energy inflation when possible.
For Bitcoin, the connection runs through monetary policy. A 2023 IMF working paper found that US monetary tightening depresses a common crypto-price factor through a risk-taking channel, similar to equities. If fuel costs prolong underlying inflation and delay monetary easing, that channel could constrain Bitcoin risk appetite.
But the risk could fade. Bowman reported recent refined-product price retracement and signs of normalizing margins, and still expected core personal consumption expenditures inflation to move closer to 2% next year.
Sources: EIA, Federal Reserve, CryptoSlate
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