Ethereum has rebounded to trade around $1.92K after bouncing from its $1.6K demand zone, but the daily chart still shows a bearish structure beneath the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. Buyers are defending the $1.85K support on lower timeframes while exchange balances keep falling to fresh cycle lows.
Ethereum is stabilizing after its recovery from the June lows, yet the broader trend has not decisively turned in favor of buyers. The daily chart still shows a bearish structure beneath key moving averages, even as the 4-hour timeframe shows improving short-term momentum against resistance.
Daily chart still favors sellers
ETH is trading around $1.92K after rebounding from the $1.6K demand zone, where buyers stepped in aggressively following the June selloff. The recovery pushed price back above a confluence resistance formed by the long-term descending trendline and the 100-day moving average near $1.9K.
However, Ethereum remains below both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages, with the latter trending lower near the $2.1K region. As long as price stays beneath these dynamic resistances, the broader structure continues to favor sellers. The first key resistance sits at $2.1K, where the 200-day moving average intersects a major supply zone, and a breakout above that cluster could expose the next resistance near $2.4K, a previous major distribution area.
On the downside, immediate support sits around $1.85K, followed by the stronger demand zone at $1.6K. Losing the $1.85K area would invalidate the recovery attempt and likely reopen the path toward $1.6K and potentially lower.
Four-hour chart hints at a breakout attempt
The lower timeframe looks more constructive. ETH has spent the past several sessions consolidating above the $1.85K support zone while compressing beneath a descending trendline that has capped price since the late-July high. This pattern resembles a short-term falling wedge, with buyers repeatedly defending higher lows against continued selling pressure at trendline resistance.
A decisive breakout above that trendline could trigger a move toward the psychological $2K level and the upper boundary of the larger ascending channel. Clearing those levels would strengthen the case for a continuation toward the daily resistance cluster near $2.2K and $2.4K. Failure to break the trendline, though, could lead to a breakdown of the $1.85K support and a revisit of the $1.75K demand area before buyers attempt another recovery.
On-chain data adds a constructive signal
Beneath the price action, the Exchange Supply Ratio keeps trending lower, reaching approximately 0.127, the lowest reading on the chart. That decline shows a smaller share of Ethereum's circulating supply sitting on centralized exchanges. Historically, falling exchange balances suggest investors are moving coins into self-custody rather than preparing to sell, and the pattern generally reflects declining spot sell-side pressure even though it doesn't guarantee higher prices in the short term.
The combination of shrinking exchange reserves and ETH holding above key support creates a constructive backdrop. Still, price needs to confirm it: only a sustained move above the descending trendline and the $2.2K resistance cluster would align the improving on-chain picture with a confirmed bullish reversal.
Source: CryptoPotato
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