Ethereum is trading around $1.86K after being rejected near $1,950 and turned away at its 100-day moving average close to $2K. The daily trend stays below key moving averages, yet the 4-hour chart holds a short-term bullish structure while exchange balances keep falling.
Ethereum remains trapped below its main technical barriers, trading around $1.86K after the June sell-off briefly pushed it into the demand zone near $1.5K. That support held, but the broader trend has yet to turn in favor of buyers.
Daily chart caps ETH near $2K
Both the 100-day and 200-day moving averages sit overhead, a sign that sellers still control the higher timeframe. The recent test of the 100-day moving average around $2K was rejected, leaving the asset stuck beneath several resistance levels.
First resistance stands at the $2K supply zone, where the key moving averages converge. A stronger barrier sits roughly around $2.4K, which capped the previous recovery attempt in April. Reclaiming those levels would be needed to suggest the downtrend is losing momentum.
Four-hour chart keeps a bullish tilt
The lower timeframe looks more constructive. Since the early July rebound, ETH has printed higher highs and higher lows along a rising trendline. After the rejection at the upper boundary of its ascending channel, price pulled back toward that trendline, where buyers stepped in.
These lines form a short-term rising wedge, and the structure stays intact while ETH holds above the $1.75K support zone. The next objective for buyers is another test of the recent highs around $1.9K to $1.95K. A breakdown below the ascending trendline would instead raise the risk of a deeper retracement toward $1.75K, with $1.7K and $1.6K as the next supports.
Exchange balances keep declining
On-chain data offers a steadier backdrop. The Exchange Supply Ratio has trended to fresh lows even through Ethereum's corrective phase, which generally indicates coins are leaving exchanges for private wallets or long-term storage. Shrinking balances mean less sell-side liquidity is readily available.
That alone does not guarantee a reversal, but the on-chain picture looks healthier than the current price structure. Historically, sustained exchange outflows have often reflected improving investor conviction, and if demand strengthens while balances stay low, the reduced supply could support a broader recovery once ETH clears its resistance.
Source: CryptoPotato
Trading involves risk.
Risk Disclaimer
