EUR/USD spent last week consolidating above 1.1323, leaving the technical outlook unchanged. The near-term bias is neutral, but the picture stays bearish while the 1.1499 support-turned-resistance caps the pair. A break either side of that range decides the next move.
EUR/USD held its ground last week, staying in consolidation above 1.1323, and the outlook has not changed. The initial bias is neutral for now, yet the setup stays bearish while the 1.1499 support-turned-resistance holds.
A break of 1.1323 would resume the fall from 1.2081 toward the 100% projection at 1.1175, measured from 1.2081 to 1.1408 off the 1.1848 swing. A decisive break of 1.1499, however, would turn bias back to the upside toward 1.1621 resistance.
Zooming out, focus returns to the 38.2% retracement of 1.0176 to 1.2081 at 1.1353. A decisive break there would revive the case for a medium-term bearish reversal after the rejection by the 1.2 cluster resistance. Further weakness would then open the 61.8% retracement at 1.0904.
A strong rebound from 1.1353, followed by a break of 1.1621, would instead retain the medium-term bullishness.
Further out, the 38.2% retracement of 1.6039 to 0.9534 at 1.2019 — close to the 1.2000 psychological level — is the Fibonacci retracement marker to watch. A rejection there would keep the multi-decade downtrend from the 1.6039 2008 high intact and leave the outlook neutral at best. A decisive break of 1.2000/19 would instead signal a long-term bullish reversal toward the 61.8% retracement at 1.3554.
Source: ActionForex
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