A January Elliott Wave count on EUR/USD called for a final push to roughly 1.2100 followed by a three-wave drop toward 1.1400. More than five months later, the pair peaked at 1.2083 and slid to 1.1325 in late June, tracing the projected correction.
An Elliott Wave count published on January 26 mapped EUR/USD's path months before it played out. The analysis read the rally from 1.0178 as a five-wave impulse, marked 1-2-3-4-5, with only the fifth and final wave still to complete.
With the pair trading near 1.1830 at the time, the count implied a new high in wave 5 near 1.2100, then a bearish reversal and a three-wave decline back toward support near 1.1400. A key tell sat inside the structure: wave 4 formed a triangle, labeled (a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(e), which in the theory always precedes the final wave of a larger sequence.
That triangle made the correction easier to call. As the author put it, Elliott Wave analysis is rarely this simple, and traders usually keep an alternative count in reserve in case the primary idea starts to fail.
EUR/USD climbed to 1.2083 before the bullish momentum ran out. In late June, the pair fell to 1.1325, down 6.3% from that five-year high.
The drop did not run in a straight line. A wave B interrupted the decline, giving it the standard three-wave A-B-C structure that the count had anticipated from the start.
Source: Investing.com
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