A widening diesel shortage, driven by falling exports from the Middle East and Russia, is tightening the global crude oil market. U.S. distillate inventories sit at their lowest seasonal level in three decades, and prediction markets put the odds of a new crude all-time high by December 31 at 11.5%, up from 3% for September 30.
U.S. distillate inventories are at their lowest level for this time of year in three decades, as diesel exports from the Middle East and Russia continue to decline. European diesel imports have dropped significantly, with prices staying just below their recent peaks.
Prediction markets price rising odds for a record
Traders are watching prediction markets for signs of how far the squeeze could push prices. The market for crude oil hitting a new all-time high by September 30 remains at 3% YES. The December 31 market shows a higher 11.5% YES, reflecting concern that the diesel shortage could increase pressure on crude prices.
China's diesel demand adds to the pressure
China's need for more crude oil to boost diesel production could also drive crude prices higher, on top of the decline in Middle Eastern and Russian diesel exports. Observers are watching OPEC's Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo and the IEA's Fatih Birol for signals that could move these markets further.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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