Fitch Ratings expects Brent crude to average $87 a barrel across 2026 but slide to around $70 a barrel from September onward as oversupply reasserts itself. The agency's June 8 outlook points to a summer spike near $110, tied to a months-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude is set to fall to about $70 a barrel from September through year-end, according to Fitch Ratings' outlook published June 8. The agency expects the full year to average $87 a barrel, well above that year-end level. That's a drop from the $100-$110 range Fitch expects during the May-to-July window, when disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have kept prices elevated.
A summer spike tied to the Strait of Hormuz
That spike traces back to the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly a fifth of the world's oil supply on any given day. The waterway has been effectively closed for shipping for about five months. Fitch's base case assumes it reopens around the end of July 2026.
Once shipping resumes, the agency expects prices to ease to roughly $80 a barrel in August as the market absorbs the returning supply. From September onward, the forecast settles near $70 as oversupply takes hold.
Fitch calls the risk profile binary
Still, Fitch Managing Director Angelina Valavina described the risk profile as binary: "binary". If the Strait doesn't reopen on schedule, or if geopolitical tensions escalate further, prices could stay well above the $87 average. Yet Fitch noted that risks are skewed to the downside, meaning it sees a sub-$70 outcome as more likely than a sustained spike above its forecasts.
Fitch also raised its oil sector outlook to improving alongside the report. From a credit perspective, clarity matters more than direction: companies can plan around $70 oil more easily than around a market swinging between $70 and $110.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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