Glassnode says bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holder cost basis as capital keeps leaving the market. Options traders are hedging the downside, and prediction markets assign cautious odds to a recovery, though two large wallet cohorts have started accumulating.
Bitcoin has slipped below the short-term holder cost basis at $75.6K and trails stocks, according to Glassnode's Nov. 11 report titled "Running on Empty." The analytics firm says "the capital that could lift it keeps leaving."
Glassnode's central argument is that recovery prospects face limits from disappearing liquidity, weakening American demand and pressure on relatively recent investors.
Stablecoin supply shrinks and ETFs see redemptions
Glassnode estimates that stablecoin supply contracted by $14.2 billion over 30 days. U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded $1.6 billion in net redemptions across 20 trading sessions.
Approximately 35% of short-term holder coins remain profitable, compared with nearly all such holdings at September's high. Glassnode also identified considerable overhead supply extending toward $83,600, which could complicate recovery attempts as underwater investors seek to exit.
However, the picture is not one-sided. Glassnode noted that the slide has cleared most long leverage near price and that bids outweigh asks in the order book. Wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation, while smaller investors and the largest holders continue distributing.
Options traders balance upside and protection
Coinglass figures show bitcoin options open interest at 439,966 BTC, approximately $33 billion, with calls at 55.72% and puts at 44.28%. The put-to-call ratio of 0.79 suggests upside exposure retains a modest advantage.
Recent trading looks more defensive. Across 45,210 BTC in 24-hour options volume, puts accounted for 50.32%, narrowly exceeding calls at 49.68%.
Prediction markets price a cautious path
Polymarket's November bitcoin price market assigns a 91% probability to touching $75,000, 62% to $77,500 and 39% to $80,000. Downside probabilities stand at 73% for $72,500, 50% for $70,000 and 18% for $65,000, while reaching $100,000 commands just 1%.
Kalshi's year-end settlement market, by contrast, leads with the $70,000-$74,999.99 bracket at 18.9%, followed by $75,000-$79,999.99 at 18.5%. Bitcoin's immediate challenge is not simply attracting buyers, but showing that renewed demand can outlast the selling pressure already embedded in its market structure.
Source: Bitcoin News
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