Gold and silver slipped in spot trading even as futures closed higher, held back by traders still pricing a Federal Reserve rate hike before year-end. Weaker jobs data and softer crude eased the pressure, but not enough to shake bearish positioning ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC minutes.
Fed rate-hike pricing keeps anchoring precious metals, and neither gold nor silver could fully break free of it after the North American close. Spot gold traded near $4,161.90 an ounce, down 0.29%, while spot silver sat at $61.900, down 0.59% on the session. Traders were fading part of last week’s jobs-led rebound while watching Fed minutes and Strait of Hormuz headlines.
Futures close higher, spot slips
The futures tape told a firmer story. Front-month gold finished up 1.0% at $4,155.10 a troy ounce, its highest settlement since June 22, while silver rose 2.1% to $61.92, a fourth straight higher close. CME Group noted the metals rebounded from multi-month lows, with silver reaching a two-week high near the 62.35 level after a seven-month low set weeks earlier. Even so, StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell said the rebound was less convincing than the settlement suggested. According to Kitco, O’Connell wrote in a note: “Gold ETFs are still friendless.”
The Fed anchor holds
The Federal Reserve’s June 16-17 meeting still sets the tone. The FOMC held its target range at 3.50% to 3.75% and said inflation remained above the 2% goal, citing energy-linked supply shocks. Weaker jobs data and lower crude have eased near-term rate-hike pricing, but not enough to force a broad CTA capitulation across the metals complex.
TD Securities analysts said bearish precious-metals positions had been hard to shake, because CTAs held net-short even after softer jobs data and the long-weekend bounce. Their read is that the market still prices a hike before year-end, which keeps weighing on metals.
Macro tape stays firm
The data gave gold no relief. The ISM services PMI registered 54.0 for June, with business activity at 55.4 and new orders at 55.1. The dollar index held near unchanged and the 10-year Treasury yield sat around 4.48%, leaving the rate headwind intact. Wednesday’s FOMC minutes are the next test, with inflation still the swing factor for the complex.
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