Gold is holding just above $4,210 as a developing bear flag pattern keeps the metal's broader trend pointed lower, even though short-term momentum has ticked higher. The rebound from Monday's selloff still lacks conviction, with elevated Treasury yields and today's US jobs report set to decide whether gold extends the bounce or slips back under $4,200.
Bear Flag Caps the Bounce
A developing bear flag pattern is keeping gold's broader trend pointed lower, even as short-term momentum ticks higher. Gold trades just above $4,210 on the five-hour chart, held below a resistance cluster between $4,265 and $4,295 that includes the 50-period moving average, the SuperTrend indicator and the Ichimoku cloud base. The metal sits below both its 50- and 200-period simple moving averages, at $4,288.72 and $4,428.28, confirming the broader downtrend.
The bear flag pattern is 60% complete. A doji candle formed at $4,211.95, signaling indecision as price probes the overhead barriers. A break below $4,143 risks a slide toward the $4,000 macro support. Given the dominant downtrend, a push above $4,230 can easily reverse into a bull trap.
Yields and the Jobs Report in Focus
Markets now turn to today's non-farm payrolls report, and the rebound from Monday's sharp selloff still lacks conviction, particularly with Treasury yields remaining elevated even as they ease off recent highs. On the hourly chart, gold has climbed back above its 100-hour moving average near $4,164, after buyers struggled against that level several times over the past couple of sessions.
The next test sits at $4,200, followed by the 200-hour moving average near $4,235. On the daily chart, gold remains below its 61.8 Fibonacci retracement around $4,241, with the 100-day moving average near $4,279 still some distance away.
Ten-year Treasury yields touched 5.34% this week — the highest level since 2002 — before easing back, a dynamic that may matter for gold as much as the payrolls number itself. A softer jobs report could give buyers room to extend the rebound, while a hotter one risks reigniting the Treasury selloff and pressuring gold back under $4,200.
Sources: Investing.com, InvestingLive
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