Spot gold traded between $4,469 and $4,477 per ounce on September 4, holding a narrow range as traders wait for the August nonfarm payrolls report. The metal is on track for a modest weekly gain after a roughly 2% jump the prior session, with the jobs data expected to reshape Federal Reserve rate expectations.
Gold settled into a tight band on September 4, trading between $4,469 and $4,477 per ounce as the market held its breath ahead of the month's most closely watched economic release. The metal remains on pace for a small weekly gain, helped by a roughly 2% surge in the prior session.
That rally came after Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller dialed back expectations for an immediate rate hike. His comments pushed back against hawkish signals Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivered at Jackson Hole.
The jobs report looms large
The August nonfarm payrolls report, due at 8:30 a.m. ET, was expected to show between 56,000 and 65,000 jobs added, with unemployment projected at 4.1% to 4.2%. ADP's private payrolls print for August showed only 38,000 jobs added, missing the 47,000 consensus and marking the weakest monthly gain since January.
The CME FedWatch Tool was pricing in roughly 50% odds of a rate increase at the Fed's September 15-16 meeting, reflecting the tug of war between Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole commentary and Waller's subsequent pushback.
Gold's wild August and the Jackson Hole pullback
Gold had a strong August, climbing above $4,600 per ounce at one point. Then Jackson Hole happened. Warsh's hawkish signals from the symposium sent gold pulling back sharply, shedding more than $100 per ounce as rate-hike fears resurfaced.
The current price near $4,470 sits at a middle ground: gold has recovered from the worst of the post-Jackson Hole selling but hasn't reclaimed the $4,600 level.
What the payrolls number means next
A weak report, near ADP's 38,000 figure or below the 56,000-65,000 consensus range, would likely push rate-hike odds lower. A strong report, above 70,000 with a steady or declining unemployment rate, would make a September hike more probable. A print that lands in the expected range, such as 60,000 with 4.2% unemployment, would not resolve the debate either way.
With the meeting sitting at 50-50 odds, even a small surprise in the payrolls data could trigger an outsized move in gold.
Source: Crypto Briefing
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